The domestic “coal-to-oil” project is hot and chaotic. It is a bottleneck. The core technology is the bottleneck, and the product economy is the key.

Under the stimulation of the historical record of international crude oil prices, the petroleum and chemical industries that have experienced ethylene heat and methanol heat are setting off an investment boom in “coal to oil”. According to the reporter’s recent knowledge from relevant departments, the annual output of “coal-to-oil” projects under construction and proposed construction in China has reached 16 million tons, and plans to invest up to 120 billion yuan. Industry experts have warned that breakthroughs in core technologies and the economics of products are the key to the success of the project, and projects are blooming and investment dislocation is the biggest concern.
It is understood that since the start of the Shenhua Group's first "coal-to-oil" project in August last year, all parts of the country have turned their attention to this area. Almost every coal-rich region will focus on the development of "coal-to-oil" projects in the local Eleventh Five-Year Plan. In addition to the Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Heilongjiang, and Shaanxi provinces that have entered the national plan, as many as a dozen regions such as Shanxi, Shandong, and Ningxia have claimed plans for this project. The annual production of these projects has reached 16 million tons. Only the projects that have been initiated and planned by this newspaper within the last month are Shenhua Group Inner Mongolia Project, Ningxia Project of Ningxia Coal Group, and Sino-foreign joint venture project of Yunnan Pioneer Coal Mine. Experts predict that by 2020, the annual output of “coal-to-oil” will reach 40 million tons. However, the planned investment in the “coal-to-oil” project currently under construction or proposed is as high as 120 billion yuan.
Faced with this investment boom, relevant experts pointed out that at present these projects are decentralized, and they are blooming and disorderly. So far, the country has not introduced the "coal-to-oil" industry development plan, and it has not designed the project layout of this industry through macro-control.
According to the experts from the China Coal Research Institute, the earliest researcher of the industrial technology, “coal-to-oil” mainly includes two technologies: direct liquefaction and indirect liquefaction. At present, only a few companies in China, such as Shenhua Group, claim to have owned the core. With technology, most of the regions and companies that plan to go to the project do not have the core technology. In addition, experts also reminded that the uncertainty of the international oil prices and domestic coal prices makes the economy of future products the key to the success of the “coal-to-oil” project. Therefore, relevant investors and relevant state departments must attach great importance to the risks that exist in the development of this industry.

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