In the context of the Hang Seng Index climbing to a six-year high and the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the A-share rally seems to have a bright future.
However, the economic data released in July last week, especially the “big diving†of credit and financing data, caused the market to be shocked by a “cold sweatâ€. In addition to the timely interpretation by the central bank, the State Council issued the “multiple measures to ease the financing costs of enterprisesâ€. The Guidance on High Issues has also alleviated the concerns of some institutions. In some organizations, the probability of interest rate cuts has increased significantly.
In addition to the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect concept stocks are expected to continue to receive market attention, some fundamentals have seen positive changes in the industry, it is also worthy of investors' attention. For example, the export of more than expected phosphate fertilizer, the market space for huge car dismantling.
The trend of the trend Guotai Junan: the volume will continue to be announced last week, the July monetary credit and social financing scale "diving", let some institutions believe that this round of economic rebound has come to an end.
Guotai Junan believes that the decline in real estate sales since August is still high, and the growth rate of power generation in the first half has turned negative. The current economic rebound has ended. Guotai Junan said in the research report that “in terms of the industry, the growth rate of crude oil processing in the upstream is down, the steel in the middle reaches is falling, but the growth rate of ethylene, cement and non-ferrous production is rising; the growth rate of downstream automobile and car production is falling, and real estate sales are falling. Once again negative growth, the collective decline of the downstream industry is worthy of vigilance."
However, the agency also believes that the interest rate cut will not be far away, and the volume will continue. Guotai Junan said, “In the context of reducing the financing cost to become the primary goal of the current government, the probability of interest rate cuts has increased significantly. This year, the central bank set the upper limit of the repo rate through the SLF (permanent loan facility) from the beginning of the year, and guided the repurchase in July. Interest rates continue to fall, giving a consistent signal to lower interest rates. We believe that there are three ways to lower interest rates in the future: one is to continue to lower the rate of repurchase bidding; the second is to lower the benchmark interest rate for loans; the third is to guide commercial banks to reduce through administrative means. The interest rate of prime credit assets such as the first suite. We judge that in order to avoid the systemic financial risks caused by the bursting of the real estate bubble, the central bank will continue to increase its interest rate, such as PSL (mortgage supplementary loan).
Driving cycle: medium and long term Focus: price reduction and method of industry hotspots Two major factors trigger the rebound of phosphate fertilizer Phosphate fertilizer used to be an overcapacity industry, but exports surged in the first half of this year, with obvious signs of improvement.
CITIC Securities believes that the two factors have triggered a bottom rebound in the profitability of the phosphate fertilizer sector. First of all, due to the continuous decline in the price of phosphate fertilizer in the first half of this year, there is basically no phenomenon of stockpiling, and the industry as a whole has entered the stage of “destockingâ€. At the same time, port stocks fell to a low level in the same period.
Secondly, domestic traders began to prepare fertilizer for the autumn market, and the purchase of compound fertilizer increased. The market supply was tight. The manufacturers currently have no inventory and sales pressure. On the other hand, the raw materials sulfur and sulfuric acid are stable and the cost of monoammonium and diammonium is formed. Certain support. CITIC Securities expects the steady growth of the phosphate fertilizer market will continue at least until the end of September.
The agency pointed out that the current phosphate fertilizer sector stocks are at the bottom of the performance, with a strong margin of safety. Leading companies have large production capacity and flexible product price increases. At present, the upstream raw materials are at a low price. Calculated with a capacity of 1 million tons, each price increase of 100 yuan / ton, will contribute 100 million yuan, leading listed companies will fully benefit from the overall rebound of the industry caused by product price increases.
In terms of individual stocks, CITIC Securities recommended: Xinyangfeng (leading, radiation national industrial layout, 2 million tons of phosphate fertilizer capacity), Yuntianhua (China's largest phosphate mining and mining company, 4.3 million tons of diammonium phosphate capacity, performance elasticity ), Xingfa Group (resource advantage, phosphate rock production capacity of more than 3 million tons, phosphate rock reserves of 149 million tons), Sylter (promising prospects for pyrite resources), six countries chemical (fertilizer capacity of 3 million tons / year, Resource advantage)
Driving cycle: short-term focus: price rebound, car dismantling, development space, China's automobile production and sales has been the world's number one for many years, but the annual recycling of scrap cars in China is less than 1% of the total, far less than developed The country has a level of 5% to 7%. Hongyuan Securities believes that China's automobile dismantling industry has a huge market space.
First of all, after the dismantling of scrapped cars, a large amount of renewable resources can be obtained. Three parts of the car dismantling can be profitable: 1. Profiting through the re-creation and reuse of parts such as “five major assemblies†(engine, steering wheel, transmission, front and rear axles, frame) 2, through the dismantling of the proceeds of the sale of materials; 3, the government subsidies for car dismantling companies.
In general, the value of remanufacturing of auto parts is more than eight times the value of scrap metal. In July 2010, the State Council promulgated the Regulations on the Management of Recycling and Dismantling of Scrapped Motor Vehicles (Draft for Comment), allowing the “Five Major Assemblyes†to be remanufactured. If the policy can be implemented, the remanufacturing rate will be greatly improved. Solve the capacity of the market.
In addition, the rectification of the yellow label vehicle is expected to become a catalyst for the short-term rapid development of the automobile dismantling industry. In September 2013, the State Council issued the “Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Planâ€, which included the yellow label vehicle remediation policies and targets, and promoted the flow of yellow label vehicles into the formal dismantling channels. According to the rectification policy, an average of 3.625 million vehicles will be eliminated each year from 2014 to 2017. If 50% of the flow to the regular dismantling plant, that is, 1.8 million vehicles are being officially dismantled, only the "yellow standard car" will bring about three times the market space of the car dismantling market.
Hongyuan Securities advised investors to pay attention to the underlying company Tianqi shares (002009, closing price of 14.82 yuan), GEM (002340, closing price of 12.50 yuan).
Tianqi is a leader in automated logistics equipment. At present, the company has comprehensively deployed the automobile dismantling industry. In May 2013, the company invested RMB 202 million in Tongling Tianqi Lantian Machinery Equipment Co., Ltd., and is committed to the development and production of refined and disassembled waste cars and efficient sorting automation equipment, and provides equipment for the company's dismantling and dismantling operations.
GEM will use the scrapped automobile base in Jiangxi as a demonstration to explore the business model of cross-market acquisition and license verification in Jiangxi, and promote the construction of Wuhan scrap car processing base. It will enter the equipment installation and commissioning phase in the second half of the year; in addition, Tianjin scrap car processing base Construction has also started.
Driving cycle: medium and long term
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