The special plan for large aircrafts was first disclosed at the 2006 annual working meeting of the National Commission for Science, Technology, Industry and Technology for National Defense. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, China’s aviation industry will start the development of large aircrafts in due course. Shortly afterwards, the State Council issued the Outline of the National Medium and Long-Term Scientific and Technological Development Plan (2006-2020), and large aircraft, manned space projects, and “Sui†projects were included in the major scientific and technological special projects of the sixteen countries. At the beginning of January this year, the Commission of Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense also said that it is conducting an active and cautious demonstration of the development of a large-scale science and technology project for large aircraft. The large aircraft plan includes two parts, a large military transport plane and a trunk passenger plane. It is difficult to develop and has a long period. It is expected that it will span two to three “five-year plansâ€.
CNC machine tool special plan: In the third quarter of 2006, the “Special Plan for the Development of CNC Machine Tools (Draft)†was reported by the association to the National Development and Reform Commission. It has been in the process of soliciting opinions and is expected to be formally announced in the near future. According to the draft, in the next five years, the machine tool industry will create several industrialized bases for CNC machine tools and supporting basic functional component industrial bases. The base companies will enjoy national policies and financial support. Among them, the plan to introduce the supporting value-added tax return, import equipment, tax-free directory adjustment policy has been announced.
The main trend of the industry in 2007
Construction Machinery: The slowdown in the growth rate of investment and industrial added value in the second half of last year brewed the arrival of a new round of climax. After the government's control techniques are upgraded, investment will not be excessively reduced, but it will not appear the kind of hot in 2006. The over-expectation of the fundamentals of the construction machinery industry will result from the unexpected growth of exports, which may be more pronounced in the traditional off-season from January to February.
Shipbuilding and port equipment: The rational return of the shipping price has made it difficult to conceal the increase in performance. As of the end of November 2006, global orders for new hand-held vessels have reached 404 million DWT, which is close to one-third of the total global tonnage of existing merchant ships. In 2006, the global fleet tonnage growth rate was 6.1%, which was higher than the shipping volume by 5%. With a growth rate of ~6%, it is expected that the gap will be more pronounced in 2007. From the perspective of handheld orders and fleet ownership, 52% of container ships, 33.2% of tankers, and 20% of bulk carriers are expected to see demand for tankers and container ships slow or even decline (although the bulk carrier market will become more active. Especially considering that the proportion of people over 20 years of age is as high as 42%).
In the short term, in the first half of 2007, due to the implementation of many new rules such as protective coatings for new ballast tanks, double-hulled fuel tanks, and double-hulled oil tankers, orders will remain strong. In addition, from a longer period of time, the main driving factor of the global shipbuilding industry economy is naturally the international shipping demand brought about by the global economic prosperity, and the economic downturn naturally also looks at the direction of the global economy. Therefore, the shipbuilding industry has at least a period of calm after the explosion.
Machine tools: The integration of industry growth and resources is the main focus. According to historical data, the prosperity of the machine tool industry lags behind that of investment. It is expected that the investment climate in 2006 will have a positive impact on the 2007 machine tools. From the growth data at the end of 2006, the growth rate of gold-cutting machine tools and numerically-controlled machine tools has obviously increased. After adjustments in previous years, the industry's technological level and operating conditions have greatly improved; the machine tool industry is also the main beneficiary of the revitalization policy. Therefore, we are optimistic about the growth of the machine tool industry in 2007.
Railway equipment: Investment has increased dramatically. The Ministry of Railways' all-road planning work conference held in mid-January proposed that the scale of railway investment in fixed assets this year be 332 billion yuan, including 256 billion yuan in infrastructure, 16 billion yuan in renovations, and 60 billion yuan in vehicle purchases. There are 70 newly-started projects, focusing on major projects such as the railway passenger dedicated line, coal transportation channel, and inter-regional contact channels, and all construction machinery companies will benefit from this.
Although the number of projects started was reduced by 17 compared with the same period of last year, the total investment plan growth rate remained at the level of nearly 50%. Among them, the growth rate of infrastructure investment plans is 55%, and it is expected that the demand for components for construction machinery and railway construction parts will continue to increase. The purchase cost of vehicles is planned to increase by 36%, with an increase of about 16 billion yuan. It is expected that the purchase of vehicles will continue to increase rapidly.
Coal Machinery: New opportunities for high-end downstream demand. Judging from the planning of the coal industry, the coal industry in the future will develop in the direction of large-scale, mechanized, high-efficiency, and high-security industries. The future demand for the coal machinery industry will not only depend on new production capacity. The replacement of old equipment will be The main point of view of the booming coal industry is to bring new development opportunities to the coal machinery industry, especially to high-end products.
CNC machine tool special plan: In the third quarter of 2006, the “Special Plan for the Development of CNC Machine Tools (Draft)†was reported by the association to the National Development and Reform Commission. It has been in the process of soliciting opinions and is expected to be formally announced in the near future. According to the draft, in the next five years, the machine tool industry will create several industrialized bases for CNC machine tools and supporting basic functional component industrial bases. The base companies will enjoy national policies and financial support. Among them, the plan to introduce the supporting value-added tax return, import equipment, tax-free directory adjustment policy has been announced.
The main trend of the industry in 2007
Construction Machinery: The slowdown in the growth rate of investment and industrial added value in the second half of last year brewed the arrival of a new round of climax. After the government's control techniques are upgraded, investment will not be excessively reduced, but it will not appear the kind of hot in 2006. The over-expectation of the fundamentals of the construction machinery industry will result from the unexpected growth of exports, which may be more pronounced in the traditional off-season from January to February.
Shipbuilding and port equipment: The rational return of the shipping price has made it difficult to conceal the increase in performance. As of the end of November 2006, global orders for new hand-held vessels have reached 404 million DWT, which is close to one-third of the total global tonnage of existing merchant ships. In 2006, the global fleet tonnage growth rate was 6.1%, which was higher than the shipping volume by 5%. With a growth rate of ~6%, it is expected that the gap will be more pronounced in 2007. From the perspective of handheld orders and fleet ownership, 52% of container ships, 33.2% of tankers, and 20% of bulk carriers are expected to see demand for tankers and container ships slow or even decline (although the bulk carrier market will become more active. Especially considering that the proportion of people over 20 years of age is as high as 42%).
In the short term, in the first half of 2007, due to the implementation of many new rules such as protective coatings for new ballast tanks, double-hulled fuel tanks, and double-hulled oil tankers, orders will remain strong. In addition, from a longer period of time, the main driving factor of the global shipbuilding industry economy is naturally the international shipping demand brought about by the global economic prosperity, and the economic downturn naturally also looks at the direction of the global economy. Therefore, the shipbuilding industry has at least a period of calm after the explosion.
Machine tools: The integration of industry growth and resources is the main focus. According to historical data, the prosperity of the machine tool industry lags behind that of investment. It is expected that the investment climate in 2006 will have a positive impact on the 2007 machine tools. From the growth data at the end of 2006, the growth rate of gold-cutting machine tools and numerically-controlled machine tools has obviously increased. After adjustments in previous years, the industry's technological level and operating conditions have greatly improved; the machine tool industry is also the main beneficiary of the revitalization policy. Therefore, we are optimistic about the growth of the machine tool industry in 2007.
Railway equipment: Investment has increased dramatically. The Ministry of Railways' all-road planning work conference held in mid-January proposed that the scale of railway investment in fixed assets this year be 332 billion yuan, including 256 billion yuan in infrastructure, 16 billion yuan in renovations, and 60 billion yuan in vehicle purchases. There are 70 newly-started projects, focusing on major projects such as the railway passenger dedicated line, coal transportation channel, and inter-regional contact channels, and all construction machinery companies will benefit from this.
Although the number of projects started was reduced by 17 compared with the same period of last year, the total investment plan growth rate remained at the level of nearly 50%. Among them, the growth rate of infrastructure investment plans is 55%, and it is expected that the demand for components for construction machinery and railway construction parts will continue to increase. The purchase cost of vehicles is planned to increase by 36%, with an increase of about 16 billion yuan. It is expected that the purchase of vehicles will continue to increase rapidly.
Coal Machinery: New opportunities for high-end downstream demand. Judging from the planning of the coal industry, the coal industry in the future will develop in the direction of large-scale, mechanized, high-efficiency, and high-security industries. The future demand for the coal machinery industry will not only depend on new production capacity. The replacement of old equipment will be The main point of view of the booming coal industry is to bring new development opportunities to the coal machinery industry, especially to high-end products.
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