According to market analysts' estimates, if all new construction and expansion projects in the Middle East are completed as planned, by the end of 2010, the Middle East petrochemical industry will have at least 25 million tons per year of ethylene and various derivative production capacity put into production. By then, the total capacity of petrochemical products in the Middle East may exceed 50 million tons/year, and the proportion of total global production capacity will increase from 9% in 2005 to 19%. Take Saudi and Iranian petrochemical producers as examples: In 2010, Saudi Arabia’s total ethylene production capacity will increase from 7.43 million tons in 2006 to 16.25 million tons per year, and it is expected that capacity will be further increased to 100 million tons in 2015. /year; Iran’s goal by 2010 is to expand its petrochemical production capacity to more than 40 million tons per year.
U.S. market analysts also said that even if they do not consider the production in the Middle East, and consider only Asian-scale China (including Taiwan, China), Thailand and Singapore, which have already been built and world-class projects have been built, the current Asian market gap is also expected to reach supply and demand in 2010. Balance, then tend to surplus. By that time, a large number of newly-added foreign petrochemical products in the Middle East will face difficulties due to its own surplus in the Asian market. The shift from a shortage of global petrochemical products to excess will lead to increasingly fierce market competition.
However, after a major Japanese trading company compiled a forecast report on the supply and demand of global petrochemical products, it questioned the existence of so-called “2008 issues†in petrochemical products. The Japanese report pointed out that the new global petrochemical product capacity can only meet the global growth needs of the year 2010, and can not meet the needs of growth after 2011. After 2010, the shortage of global petrochemical products will become a serious problem.
The report forecasts that assuming an average global GDP growth rate of 4.9% in 2007 and 3.2% in 2008-2013, global ethylene demand in 2013 will increase from slightly more than 110 million tons in 2006 to nearly 163 million tons, corresponding to global Demand for propylene will increase from slightly below 69 million tons in 2006 to 102 million tons. On the other hand, assuming the average operating rate of ethylene and propylene plants in the world in 2006, it is estimated that the global ethylene production in 2013 will be approximately 155 million tons and the propylene production will be approximately 97 million tons. The forecast results in two areas indicate that the global ethylene supply gap will be about 8 million tons in 2013, and the propylene supply gap will exceed 4 million tons.
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